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Supply & Demand

 
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Charles
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:38 pm    Post subject: Supply & Demand Reply with quote

Whilst in at NOG for a cup of coffee, car wash and some advice on my starter motor, I couldn't help noticing the number of empty spaces on their forecourt. Add to that the 3 lonely vehicles in the inside used car display area and this got me asking some questions.

Apparently they have a healthy outflow of used cars (because they are pricing them keenly) but trying to get hold of replacement stock is proving a real problem.

Sure there are plenty of used cars out there but good ones with sensible specs and solid history are hard to come by because owners are not trading in on new cars or are holding onto their cars for longer.

Got me thinking about when is the right time in the current climate to try and get a good trade-in value against a new car - heavy discount on the new one and need for used stock should be a good recipe. However, the lack of credit available to buyers is probably the reason for the blockage in the system. Cash buyers should be in clover, however.

What do you reckon?
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olli
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Started discussing that on BMWland a couple of weeks ago.

The time of being able to buy a top used for rock bottom money is already over, as there are not many left, as you noticed.

Well specced, desirable young used ones already started fetching over book at the latest auctions. Even 4x4 values are coming back up. So if you have a really sought after example, times are really getting interesting if you fancy a new or demo model.
Chunky discount on the new one plus a serious p/x for the used one.

Nevertheless Alpina cars don't really seem to be part of that game, but I am sure our values, even on the well looked after slightly older ones will firm up again, too.
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hythe
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the bunch I just bought my 2004 X5 from claim they were about to put the asking price up, after seeing the prices come through from the latest internal dealer network auction. Prices do seem to have hit the bottom for now, which does not mean zero depreciation going forward, just that the main correction in older car values has taken place - dynamics still seem pretty weak for new and nearly-new cars.

I think the point is that someone will spend up to 20-25k on a car still, and will prefer a quality used car at that price point, but getting someone to shell out 50-150k, whether new or used, is tough going.

Interestingly, the dealer offered me 20k of unsecured financing for the X5, for four years fixed at "3.9%" - once I'd calculated it properly, the true all-in APR was more like 4.8%, but still, it seems credit is available at reasonable prices...

Good time to sell a 10-20k car, then, and trade up into a nearly new Aston or Porsche GT3, if you have the cash. Me, I'll be selling my 2007 Cooper D instead - anyone interested?
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Peter&Janet
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think we shall see anther year where we had the great winter give away.

Not only the garages but all businesses were over stocked, great prices for TV flat screens and all.

I have not been home a while but can see the garages being empty as every garage owner will be afraid to stock up, look what happened to Ged and massive over supply of Alpina coupes & cabs.

Read in Honest John column cars are fetching top prices at the auctions, I don't think it will take too long for the new car supply to dry up, not many manufacturers working it seems.

Interesting the 4 dr D3 has a lot of interest and the coupe is stuggling. Wonder where it will all end. I've got the B3 coupe on a balloon with 26K at end of 3 yrs, I'm starting to think it may be worth more in 3 yrs if no supply chain.
3 months ago I thought it may fetch a much lower figure even though it will be very low milage & so kept the finance, now I feel it may be better to pay it off, but still sitting on the fence.
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Maximillian
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:12 pm    Post subject: Re: Supply & Demand Reply with quote

Charles wrote:

Got me thinking about when is the right time in the current climate to try and get a good trade-in value against a new car - heavy discount on the new one and need for used stock should be a good recipe. However, the lack of credit available to buyers is probably the reason for the blockage in the system. Cash buyers should be in clover, however.

What do you reckon?


Charles, do I detect the soft stirrings of the wind of change? Is a certain Oxfordshire-based and near-legendary ALPINA nearing the more relaxed status of 'second / third / fourth car'.....? Are the temptations of the latest offerings from Buchloe (and Neil's splendid visual account of Geneva!) working their way into your subconcious and loosening the purse-strings?

If so... "Give in!" I say! If ever anything was more overdue than another of Mr Bovensiepen's finest finding its way to such a worthy and enthusiastic home I'd be gobsmacked! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Charles
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If only - sadly that won't be happening in this neck of the wood for the foreseeable future.

Whilst I have a job, I would describe my situation as less employed than I would like to be Sad

Anyone looking for an extremely capable, yet somewhat maverick, Chief Executive?
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chad5k1
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hythe wrote:
Interestingly, the dealer offered me 20k of unsecured financing for the X5, for four years fixed at "3.9%" - once I'd calculated it properly, the true all-in APR was more like 4.8%, but still, it seems credit is available at reasonable prices...


That is interesting. What dealer was it? You can't pick up a regular loan for less than about 8%, but if you can get car finance for less than the interest rate on the mortgage then it can make more sense than paying cash.
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hythe
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup - I took the credit... oddly, when I signed it up, it said the official APR was about 7%, but no, really, it's 4.8% all-in - trust me, I do this stuff for a living!

Financing was from BMW UK, through the dealer.

Cost was about flat to my mortgage fix, but 2 years longer, and since we'll probably be looking at monster inflation by 2011/12, I thought that was no bad thing - just take the cash and pay off part of the mortgage instead!
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