Buying a diesel Alpina

[Rav]

Ok, so i am still toying with the idea of decreasing the number of cars in the fleet to a more manageable number.

I have seen a nice looking D5 bi turbo on a 13 plate for sale. Its a decent car 140k miles and well maintained. Is buying a diesel a bad idea as it really seems that the general public and government alike are starting to brad diesel as satan juice. Is it a matter of time before diesel is priced out and these cars will not be allowed any where near a city, town or village?

[Jonnywishbone]

Anybody who owns a Euro 5 diesel - which I assume the F10/11 D5 is - is already charged to drive into central London. The ULEZ is being expanded to include my my borough which is right on the edge of Greater London and is normal, not especially built-up suburbia personified. This trend is only going to continue, inexorably.

Personally if I were buying a Euro 5 diesel engined car, I’d do so assuming that it would have little or next to no resale value and if I ended up being wrong I’d be pleasantly surprised. I definitely wouldn’t buy one if I were either living in or planning on commuting regularly into a large city.

[Frosty]

I can imagine if you are in an area that you need to be paying for ULEZ then that will make a big hole in the mileage savings made with diesel over petrol.

I am resigned to the fact that the car resale value is only going one way, but take comfort from the fact that with over 130k miles I am happy to have this car as a keeper for daily use.

I still plan to get a petrol, ideally my old B8 back, as a classic for occasional use!

[Wellsy]

I own a D3 Biturbo - For me any serious changes are many many years away. They are realistically not going to force people to stop driving Diesels as there are simply to many of them on the road. At the moment my view is in the next 13 years as we run up to 2035 they will either be able to develop a more environmentally friendly Diesel fuel or an alternate fuel that a diesel could run on.
Of course all that depends on me still owning my D3 for that long. At the moment I'm just enjoying a car that will put a smile on my face and return 40+mpg all day long.

[Marc 76]

For me going back a year or so ago there were a few things to consider:

How often you would be driving into an existing Ultra Low Emission Zone? <Never if i can help it>
Where are future zones likely to be and do you have a need to go there very often or even at all? (Larger cities obviously) <very Infrequent; can always park and ride!>
How long would you intend to keep the car? <6-8 years going on my previous two, i never consider them to owe me anything when i'm done>
What type of journeys do you do the most? <Motorway commute racks up the most miles>
Do you need the diesel characteristics? <MPG and towing ability is a requirement for me>

Personally i don't think Diesel as a fuel is going anywhere anytime soon given its HGV and commercial usage, at least not for 10 years or so and even then, as Wellsy has pointed out there may be a less polluting alternative by then...

[Charles]

As far as I am aware, petrol and diesel will still be available at fuel stations - be it oil-based or synthetic. The only thing happening is that new cars being built will not have an ICE, but this a moot point as hydrogen-based ICEs are being developed as we speak by JCB and others - so will these be allowed?

As such, you should be able to run your current car until it is no longer economic - be it for repairs or the cost of fuel.

[D3orbust]

If you can hang on I may be selling #21 soon I think it’s on around 76k at the moment, would prefer he went to a forum member

[ade and liz flint]

hydrogen-based ICEs are being developed as we speak by JCB and others - so will these be allowed?

Quite simply: according to the future of transport in the UK, yes. However, the ability to generate green hydrogen at scale has to be demonstrated and proven. That's been ongoing for a number of years, now, and some clever thinking and breakthroughs are in front of BEIS for further funding bids to conduct feasibility studies and to kick start manufacture. Hydrogen ICE that we've come across are extremely similar to current petrol and diesel engines, and would be the logical replacement for the countries' truck fleet, along with earth mover/diggers etc hence JCB's push. Whether they would become mainstream personal transport propulsion isn't clear, although prototypes do exist. Much could come down to just how much green hydrogen we can produce at scale, and that may take a while until the large nuclear stations are in service alongside advanced green technology we already possess, and new tech which is beginning to feed into the power grid.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are way ahead in advancement as it stands, and many will travel on HFC buses if they live in Liverpool and some other cities. Toyota have a fleet of Mirai HFC vehicles on long term testing in the UK, and Riversimple have been leading the hydrogen development agenda for 10 years or more, and anyone who travels through Wales may well see their very futuristic vehicle on its non-stop road trials, and it's for this reason there is a hydrogen refuelling station in Milford Haven boatyard (another green target...). Their effectiveness on the overall green target, which will allow some old fashioned ICE to continue alongside, is the important factor. We will continue to run an ICE alongside a BEV but would happily make that twin ICE of different flavours when the technology filters down.

Diesel and petrol vehicles will be around for a good while yet, but their places on the roads will dwindle enormously in next 5 years. Old diesel will be priced off it sooner by clean air zones: an example, our 330d cost £16 for 15 hours in Birmingham as 2 days is payable due to it being an overnight stay. That'll drive older dervs out in no time.

[Charles]

Quite simply: according to the future of transport in the UK, yes. However, the ability to generate green hydrogen at scale has to be demonstrated and proven.

I agree.

I don't believe the push for BEV is sustainable in the long run - raw material supply, recharging capacity and recycling of old batteries to name but three reasons. BEVs were a quick and relatively easy option away from oil-based transportation but, ultimately, hydrogen power will win out - be it HFC for small vehicles and HICE for lorries etc.

As well as the issues around green production, there is the chicken and egg issue of infrastructure and production of suitable vehicles. You mention Toyota but other big players, including BMW, are tinkering in this area too. I think that there are only a handful of hydrogen refilling places currently in the UK. However, if large fleet owners commit to hydrogen based transport then I am sure the energy companies will move heaven and earth to make the fuel available. After all, if you can get LPG from your local forecourt then why not H2? And if H2 is readily available then why not accelerate production of suitable vehicles?

There is much fascinating research going into how to release the H2 from H2O, and some of the catalyst-based technology looks extremely promising as a way of utilising green energy to produce green H2 more cost (and environmentally) effectively.

The next few years will see significant developments in these areas and what is available in 2030 will be very different to what we envisage right now

[Gorgerak]

All this talk (and action tbf) of HFC and HICE is genuinely exciting and I look forward to it becoming a reality - I enjoyed Harry Metcalfe's video on JCB's development work a while ago. If it continues to move at a decent pace I may well be in a position to take the plunge in 10 years and switch away from dead dinosaur juice.

But for the moment, that move is not realistic for me or even practically feasible. I just hope that politicians dont start ignorantly crippling the finances of those who drive petrol and diesel ICE for short term popularity gains when the "proper" next generation of propulsion is still so far away...

[Charles]

All this talk (and action tbf) of HFC and HICE is genuinely exciting and I look forward to it becoming a reality ...

But for the moment, that move is not realistic for me or even practically feasible. I just hope that politicians dont start ignorantly crippling the finances of those who drive petrol and diesel ICE for short term popularity gains when the "proper" next generation of propulsion is still so far away...

This is my concern. Although production of new diesel/petrol ICE cars will stop in 2030, there will still be a lot of existing vehicles out there that still need fuel. As these inevitably reduce in number over time, revenue from fuel duty will also fall.

Option 1 - increase fuel duty/tax to cover losses and price ICE off the road
This is the easy option as it achieves the zero-emission goal quickly. However, it doesn't resolve the issue of total loss of ICE-based fuel duty and tax which would inevitably lead to Option 2 ...

Option 2 - charge duty/tax on electric cars
This is extremely likely but, politically, it faces similar challenges as being experienced by all the diesel drivers who were told to buy diesel and now told that it is the spawn of the devil by the Government! So, is there another option ...

Option 3 - introduce road usage pricing and eliminate fuel duty/tax
I remember reading recently that the Government are looking at Option 3. It is probably the fairest approach and may explain why smart motorwys are springing up everywhere to support transponder-based road pricing, but the devil will be in the detail as to how they implement it.

In my mind, whether a car is electric or ICE, it occupies the same amount of space on the road. Arguably, as BEVs are heavier than "ancient gas guzzlers" one could argue that they cause more impact on the roads and so should pay a higher price per mile to pay for the damage they do to infrastructure. However, once again, this goes against the idea of shifting people into electric vehicles ...

I guess we will have to wait and see. In the meantime, H2 R&D is gathering pace - be it the manufacturers or the suppliers of H2 - and I am expecting significant announcements in the next couple of years as 2030 models begin to hit the drawing boards

[Yad3100]

Option 3 - introduce road usage pricing and eliminate fuel duty/tax
I remember reading recently that the Government are looking at Option 3. It is probably the fairest approach and may explain why smart motorwys are springing up everywhere to support transponder-based road pricing, but the devil will be in the detail as to how they implement it.

I have previously worked on road user charging systems. Lorry user charging at the turn of the century was developed and then pulled due to the vast costs to implement as it needed data collection to be effective (tag based technology). The tech has been with us for some time and will be easier to implement these days due to the availability of digital information BUT it will never happen across the network without the political will to do it.

There is an emergent Clean Air Zone policy but for some reason DfT are allowing each applicant to be individual, so of the 3 in operation only 1 (Birmingham) charges diesels. Assuming that this is the model that may be applied widely is flawed.

I was also part of the team that developed “Smart Motorways” specifically the M42 pilot and was only a mechanism to create greater capacity without being undermined by NIMBY protestors during the planning process. Yes it is safer as the hard shoulder is the most unsafe place on our entire road network as any collision will likely have a fatal outcome due to the speed differential.

IMHO EV is Betamax or minidisc, depending on your age, as the range is awful, the price to manufacture and recycle batteries does not stack up in carbon terms and then there is the requirement for greater electric generation. It just does not stack up.

We all should be considering conversion of the garage to a stable for when the GREENS get in, but how will we produce enough feed to keep the horses fit. Same problem just different material inputs.